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☆ Asia stocks slip as dovish Fed cheer fades
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But it fell 0.2% in early trade on Wednesday. Nasdaq futures (.IXIC) were down 0.2% and S&P 500 futures fell 0.1% early in the Asia day. They have fallen about 50 basis points since the Fed held rates steady early in the month. It was broadly steady at $1.0921 to the euro and 148.17 yen in early trade on Wednesday. In commodity markets Brent crude futures held just above their 50-day moving average at $82.64 a barrel.

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That hawkish change in market expectations has helped boost the U.S. dollar to its highest level since March. Just over 25% of economists in the poll, 23 of 86, forecast at least one Fed rate cut by the end of 2023, but that is down from 28% in the last poll. The U.S. Labor Department is due to release consumer price inflation data on June 13, the first day of the Fed meeting. "If most Fed officials feel at least another 25-basis-point hike will be necessary, it seems simplest to deliver that hike in June rather than 'skip'." Inflation as measured by core PCE was forecast to remain above 2% at least until 2025.

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☆ Stocks slide into Fed mode, shorts stalk banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Overnight, tumbling regional bank stocks (.KRX) dragged the S&P 500 (.SPX) down 1.2% and oil dived more than 5% on fears that shaky bank confidence and signs of weakness in the U.S. job market were harbingers of a looming broader slowdown. Bonds rallied as investors reckoned the Federal Reserve, which sets policy later on Wednesday, will soon be switching from rate hikes to cuts. Among banks, PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O), down 27.8%, Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL.N), down 15.1%, and Comerica Inc (CMA.N) down 12.4%, were the biggest losers. If that happens, focus will be on whether or how hard Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushes back on investors' expectations for rate cuts by year's end. The Australian dollar has given back some of the ground gained on Tuesday, following a surprise rate hike from the central bank, and sat at $0.6670.

☆ Relief rally on bank rescue lifts riskier currencies; dollar slips
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Aussie jumped 0.76% to $0.6708 in Asia trade on Friday, while the kiwi rose 0.69% to $0.6239. The move followed Credit Suisse's (CSGN.S) announcement earlier on Thursday that it would borrow up to $54 billion from the Swiss National Bank, after the central bank threw a financial lifeline to the embattled Swiss lender. Earlier in the week, the Swissie had plunged the most against the dollar in a day since 2015. It was last 0.56% higher at 133.01 per dollar, on track to rise more than 1% for the week. Reporting by Rae Wee; Editing by Bradley Perrett and Christopher CushingOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Dollar slips as banks rescue makes room for relief rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

ECB policymakers sought to reassure investors that euro zone banks were resilient and that if anything, the move to higher rates should bolster their margins. The euro's reaction to the decision was fairly muted, though it managed to eke out a 0.3% gain on Thursday. Earlier in the week, the Swissie had plunged the most against the dollar in a day since 2015. The Japanese yen remained elevated, and was last roughly 0.3% higher at 133.30 per dollar. "The turmoil in the banking sector is complicating the outlook for Fed policy, but the impact may be more nuanced than the Fed simply reversing course," said Philip Marey, senior U.S. strategist at Rabobank.

That would come after the European Central Bank's decision on Thursday to follow through with a 50 basis point rise it pre-announced in February, prioritizing sticky inflation. Only five respondents in the latest Fed poll expected a pause, including four primary dealers, with only one bank, Nomura, expecting a 25 basis point cut. "The past week's financial turmoil will give the Fed some misgivings about pushing rates much higher," said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. Mericle expects more hikes however, with a peak rate of 5.25%-5.50% in Q3, higher than the poll median. Meanwhile the labor market is showing few signs of weakness, with unemployment rate forecasts broadly lower compared with last month's poll.

☆ Fed to deliver two 25-basis-point hikes in Q1, followed by long pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Prerana Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Fed officials broadly agree the U.S. central bank should slow the pace of tightening to assess the impact of the rate hikes. The Fed raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 425 basis points last year, with the bulk of the tightening coming in 75- and 50-basis-point moves. If realized, that would take the policy rate - the federal funds rate - to the 4.50%-4.75% range. The fed funds rate was expected to peak at 4.75%-5.00% in March, according to 61 of 90 economists. Reuters Poll- U.S. Federal Reserve outlookIn the meantime, the Fed is more likely to help push the economy into a recession than not.

☆ Fed to lift rates by 50 basis points, but peak policy rate may be higher
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( Prerana Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. consumer price inflation unexpectedly fell below 8% last month, bolstering already well-established market expectations the Fed would go for smaller rate hikes going forward after four consecutive 75-basis-point increases. Peak rate forecasts ranged between 4.25%-4.50% and 5.75%-6.00%. But 16 of 28 respondents to an additional question said the bigger risk was that rates would peak higher and later than they expect now, with another four saying higher and earlier. "While markets are focused on peak inflation, underlying inflation trends are persistent. This could force the Fed to keep raising the federal funds rate well into next year and beyond levels currently anticipated," said Philip Marey, senior U.S. strategist at Rabobank.

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